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At the Mercy of Inflation — Alpha Sources.CV

I’ll let the charts do the talking this week. This is always a good idea when it’s been a while since you’ve had a broader look at markets. As far as I can see, not much has changed. The U.S. CPI report is still the most important economic report of the month. The violent sell-off in response to what was a small upside surprise to U.S. core inflation in August is all you need to know. Markets would like to see a sustained roll-over in inflation, and an associated pivot in Fed tightening. So far, this is not happening. Equities have suffered badly in the wake of the August CPI data, and a 75bp rate hike from the Fed later this month is now a done deal. Some sell-siders have even stuck their neck out, calling for a 100bp hike. It’s gnarly.

Do you want to read the rest? Click here for the PDF.*

*I have changed the template to a one-column format, in this version with charts at the back. My new template, however, also can accommodate charts midstream in the text. I hope it offers an improved reading experience. Comments and suggestions, as always, are welcome. I will soon begin the process of moving my long-form pieces onto this template too.

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